Ajax - Panathinaikos Prediction, Picks and Tips
We go with this forecast related to the policy that obviously has nothing to do with this friendly match but I have placed here because there is no specific section for politics and to understand that the bookmaker can allow this bet more or less until Monday in the afternoon. The bet is very simple: Pedro Sánchez will be invested as president of the government in the second vote, which will be held on Thursday, July 25. We have said bet in the policy section of Betfair to a 3.25 fee. There are 3 options to the question: When will Pedro Sánchez be re-elected President of the Government of Spain? - Not before July 26 to 1.40 quota. - In the second ballot of July 25 to 3.25 quota. - In the first vote of July 23 to quota 7. The reason why I choose the option of the second vote is because I believe that the chances of Pedro Sanchez being invested as president in that vote are higher than what the quotas indicate.
Let's go with the analysis of the bet: - We must remember that the Congress of Deputies consists of 350 deputies, so to be re-elected president it is necessary to obtain 176 votes in the first vote, that is, absolute majority. - In the second ballot, it is sufficient to obtain more yes than no, that is, a simple majority would suffice. - In the event that neither in the first nor in the second ballot Pedro Sánchez was elected president, a new period of negotiations would be opened that would last until the middle of September. Taking into account the current composition of the Congress of Deputies, this would almost certainly mean the convocation of new elections for the month of November. Regarding the position of the different political parties before the investiture of Pedro Sánchez we have the following situation: - PSOE 123 deputies: Obviously they will vote yes to the investiture of Pedro Sánchez. - PP 66 deputies: Your vote will be negative. - Citizens 57 deputies: Your vote will be negative. - United We can 42 deputies: It is the great unknown of the investiture session. The resignation of Pablo Iglesias to be part of the executive seems to have paved the agreement between PSOE and Podemos but a few hours after the beginning of the investiture session the negotiations persist and the agreement does not seem to be close. The investiture of Pedro Sánchez will depend on the position of Podemos. - Vox 24 deputies: Your vote will be negative. - ERC 15 deputies: The position of ERC is not entirely clear although everything seems to indicate that they will abstain. - JXCAT 7 deputies: Difficult to predict the position of JXCAT, in any case their support will not be decisive in the event that other nationalist formations such as ERC or PNV abstained on the second ballot. - PNV 6 deputies: Everything seems to indicate that the PNV will vote yes to the investiture. - Bildu 4 deputies: It seems that Bildu will abstain, at least, on the second ballot. - Canary Coalition 2 deputies: The fact that the PSOE snatched the insular government to CC will almost certainly cause the non-CC to Pedro Sánchez. - Navarra Sum 2 deputies: Identical to the previous case, he is not insured. - Compromis 1 deputy: Voting in favor of Sanchez's investiture. - Regionalist Party of Cantabria: Identical case to the previous one, favorable vote.
Taking into account the presumed affirmative or negative votes of each political formation we can draw several conclusions: - It seems very difficult that Pedro Sanchez be invested as president of the government after the first vote since, even with the favorable vote of Podemos would not reach the 176 deputies necessary to be invested president in this vote. At this time only 123 of the PSOE, 1 of Compromis and 1 of the PRC would be guaranteed. Even adding the 42 of Podemos and the 6 of the PNV the maximum number of support from Sanchez would be 173. - The big question is whether P. Sánchez will be invested in the second vote. For this, as we have said above, a simple majority would suffice, that is, more yes than no. Bearing in mind that 66 of the PP, 57 of Citizens, 24 of Vox, 7 of JXCAT, 2 of Canary Coalition and 2 of Navarre Sum will vote almost certainly not, we would have a total of 158 negative votes for Sanchez, so Pedro Sánchez would need a minimum of 159 affirmative votes to be able to be sworn in as president. - If we add the 123 of PSOE, 42 of Podemos, 6 of PNV, 1 of Compromis and 1 of PRC we would have a total of 173 favorable votes to Pedro Sánchez who would be appointed president without needing even the yes of ERC. In short, bet that it is not easy but it is more feasible than quotas indicate and will depend basically on the support of Podemos to Pedro Sánchez and the negotiating capacity of the training and the PSOE in the coming hours. If on Thursday 25 we do not have a new president we will have new elections next November.
Our recommendation tip for Ajax - Panathinaikos: BTS / NO @ 1,65