Dep. Municipal - Colon Santa FE Prediction, Picks and Tips
They asked me for a forecast for the weekend, because here we have this, as always, with the very high odds that I like! It's coming, it's coming, it's coming ... the South American Cup, the second important cup in South America, the one that faces (supposedly) weaker teams than those of the Copa Libertadores, which would be the equivalent of the Europa League in UEFA. And these international tournaments, ALWAYS give us shares with value. And that's because the bookies in their calculations consider whether the equipment is from a certain country. Then, when facing a Peruvian team with an Argentine team, they see that most of the time the favorite is the Argentine. But this, in my opinion, is NOT important, but we must buy equipment to team ... Deportivo municipal, is a weak team, of that, there is no doubt. Within the Peruvian teams it is not strong, in a country where we know that Sporting Cristal, Alianza Lima, and few other teams stand out, the rest, DEL MONTON. But Colon, ALSO is a team of category, is neither first category nor second. And forgive if some fan of that team reads this, but it is REALITY.
Let's start by analyzing what are the historical values of both teams. Deportivo municipal has 33% wins, 27% draws and 40% losses. A few numbers BAD, with a team that we see that it wins 42% of the points it disputes. But Colon, is not much better than his Peruvian rival. The red-and-black team has 34% wins, 31% draws and 35% defeats, with which they get 44% of the points they play. Well, Colon, is going through a VERY BAD MOMENT. In the Argentine Superliga are TWENTY-TWO PARTIES !!! ... where of 22 matches JUST won 4, 18%, LA-MEN-TA-BLE. If it were not that in Argentina there is the "Table of averages", it was very likely that they were descending to the second division, and incredibly, they are eleventh: TOTAL INJUSTICE. The last results of Colon, defeats and draws. In the last 12 official games, I just WON A MATCH !!! ... 1 of 12 !, 8%! ... totally DISASTER. They are not going bright in the championship, they are ninth, in the middle of the table, and although they won 1 single game of the last 6 that they played, as they had 3 draws, they had only 2 losses. In short, BOTH come badly to this game ... but ... Deportivo municipal comes from GuateMALA and Colon from GuatePEOR.
As for the odds, as can be seen in the graph, the most likely is the victory of municipal Deportivo with 37%, but OJO !, that the second most likely is the tie with 35%. That means that we have a 65% probability of 1X, with which we need a quota higher than 1.66 for it to have value ... and it has it, because it is in 1.75 where it is better (Oddsportal). But for those who know me, they know that I LOVE THE BIG QUOTAS !, and usually the thing goes better like that, as happened with the game between Angers and Amiens, where I could have entered the double chance and I went to draw. So I'm inclined to go to the most probable, locataria victory. Well, you can see in the graph that both the locative victory and the draw have value, only that the value for the victory of Deportivo Municipal is 12.19% and the tie at 3.95%. For that reason, with the victory of the locals, we have a tendency to a yield higher than 10%, as it is usually with our forecasts (although in this month, it is going well above the average). What if it is not convenient FOR NOTHING, is the victory of Colon, which has a NEGATIVE value of 18.94, SUPERB. For the victory of Columbus had value would have to exceed the quota 3.57 and not only does not exceed it, but it is around 2.15, nor should you play, although you are a fan of Santa Fe. A match, where I see more likely the victory of the Peruvians. For those who do not dare to be brave along with me and do not want to play this very high fee, I recommend that you enter the 1X, that is, draw or victory of municipal Deportivo. The double chance, have an effectiveness of around 95%, which, would not be bad, and more in this case, which is a nice value.
Our recommendation tip for Dep. Municipal - Colon Santa FE : BTS / NO @ 1.63